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CALGARY, ALTA. –  Analysts at CIBC Capital Markets say they don’t expect the private sector to take the lead on a new West Coast oilsands pipeline so long as the British Columbia government and First Nations are opposed. 

They write in a report that companies would have to rely on meeting the ill-defined constitutional duty to consult with Indigenous groups and untested new federal legislation aimed at speeding along infrastructure projects deemed in the national interest.  

The Alberta government is funding early work on an application to the recently established Major Projects Office for a pipeline that would send oilsand bitumen to a port on B.C.’s north coast for export to Asia. 

The Alberta and federal governments have reached an energy accord that would, among other things, ease a ban on oil tankers in that area “if necessary” and strengthen the industrial carbon price.  

The CIBC analysts say they expect there to be some financial incentives to shield any project proponent from costs related to “potentially endless legal challenges.” 

They also aren’t banking on oilsands producers ramping up their output immediately, even though the memorandum of understanding spells out that they will not be subject to a federal emissions cap. 

“We view a West Coast pipeline as important for economic sovereignty, but believe it will take some time to materialize,” the analysts wrote. 

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