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Ontario ��������ion Secretariat director of research Katherine Jacobs saved the best news for last during her March 5 presentation at the OCS State of the Industry and Outlook Conference held in Toronto.

Jacobs outlined the results of the latest Contractor Survey, which contained mixed results on ratings such as general optimism for 2026 and contractors’ reports on cancelled or postponed projects.

But her report on the project pipeline for the province featured large, round numbers: the value of confirmed projects for Ontario now stands at $200 billion, as recently calculated by BuildForce Canada, and the GTA’s share is half that – $100 billion.

“It is a massive project pipeline out there,” said Jacobs.

“These are projects that are committed to moving ahead. They’re not dreams, they’re not thoughts. These are actual projects. The owners have said yes, these projects are going ahead.”

Driving the robust forecast in the GTA are transit work, power generation and health care projects, Jacobs said.

The contractor survey revealed significant uncertainty in the face of such challenges as the Donald Trump tariffs, the continuing flatlining of highrise residential and ongoing concerns about workforce availability.

Jacobs told the delegates she was at first perplexed upon seeing contrasting survey results revealing a pessimistic outlook sector-wide for 2026 but a more positive forecast from contractors for their own prospects.

Half (49 per cent) of contractors expect the Ontario construction market to be either stable (35 per cent) or grow (14 per cent) in 2026, while a similar proportion (46 per cent) expect it to decline.

But 36 per cent expect higher revenues and 33 per cent expect to conduct more business than in 2025.

Jacobs said in an interview, “People overall have that general sense when they think about the overall construction market, about uncertainty, given everything that’s going on, but they maybe understand their own marketplace a little bit better.

“So they’re saying, ‘When I think about what I’m doing, I know what I have on my books.’”

A total of 400 contractors were consulted between Dec. 23 and Jan. 26 – before an additional source of uncertainty was introduced, the Iran war.

“There are strong fundamentals in the industry right now,” said Jacobs.

“Residential, of course, is a whole different story.”

Recent research by BuildForce in the GTA suggests a recovery for highrise residential may be years away, Jacobs said.

“We’ve had calls with BuildForce, a GTA call, and it doesn’t sound like they expect it to improve, certainly not this year, maybe not next year, maybe the year after. So that’s a long haul for the residential sector.”

Among other survey results:

• Over half (58 per cent) of contractors report one or more of their projects have been either delayed or cancelled. The primary drivers are: escalating material costs (66 per cent), lack of financing (59 per cent), uncertainty from the trade war (45 per cent) and high interest rates (45 per cent). This represents a significant increase from previous years, the report noted.
• Supply chain disruptions have decreased significantly – 34 per cent of contractors experienced disruptions in the past year compared to 58 per cent in 2024 and 38 per cent in 2025. Trade policy uncertainty introduces potentially new supply chain risks, the survey indicated.
• Despite economic uncertainty, half of contractors (50 per cent) expect hiring skilled labour to become more difficult in 2026. Seven of 10 firms now employ apprentices, an increase from 58 per cent in 2024 and 64 per cent in 2025.

OCS CEO Brian Barron suggested the unionized sector is better able to actively manage the continuing workforce pressures.

“Labour supply is always a concern,” he said. “I think the unionized sector does a very good job, because they use effectively pools of workers where they’re able to distribute them, where they’re needed most within the province, to meet the demand of projects.

“There is innovative work being done on behalf of some of the data-oriented organizations that look at labour forecast and try and balance really what’s needed and when.”

Jacobs said ICI investment has been driven by the institutional sector, with massive spends on hospitals. Growth in the industrial sector is slowing, but commercial is stable.

“The commercial sector has some strength and received some benefits from back-to-work mandates, both provincial and federal government, mandating workers back to work into the offices,” she remarked.