��������

To say 2025 was unpredictable would be an understatement.

For the Canadian construction industry, it meant constantly having to pivot to deal with an ever-changing environment. Whether it was, and is, watching to see the latest move the Donald Trump administration makes south of the border regarding tariffs; adjusting to a completely new regime back home with the Mark Carney minority government; adapting to the rapidly changing world of AI, with the added detail of data centres; and continuing to try and come up with solutions to the housing crisis, the industry has had its hands full.

The Daily Commercial News and Journal of Commerce have followed along every step of the way. Here is a look back at these 2025 trends, which will inevitably surface again in 2026. ��

Specifically, part one takes a look at the never-ending tariff saga as well as how Mark Carney’s Liberal government is doing after more than six months in power.

TARIFFS START AND END THE YEAR WITH UNCERTAINTY

As soon as Trump took office in January, Canadians, Mexicans and the world alike was waiting to see what was next.

It came as little shock when he decided to move ahead with threats of imposing 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canadian imports beginning Feb. 1.

While those tariffs were delayed, retracted and then imposed on certain items, with steel and lumber eventually getting the brunt, it meant daily news updates as well as growing uncertainty.

The Canadian and Mexican architects of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement said in March Trump’s trade war had crossed a line that essentially wiped out the continental trade pact.

But Canada wasn’t about to sit idly by, vowing to diversify markets, hit back with retaliatory tariffs and build up the nation’s own resources.

All of this was happening amid a backdrop of ongoing discussions between Canada and the U.S.

But what was happening in the world of construction? According to senior lawyers at Dentons Canada LLP��in Toronto it came down to contracts.��

Because tariffs affect steel and aluminum products��used in building, the cost of items like nuts and bolts will rise, and there could be supply chain risks that lead to project delays. Owners and contractors will have to continue to assess how the uncertainty can be addressed and if current construction contracts include terms that provide for cost increases arising from tariffs to be passed along to the owners.

But Canadian contractors weren’t alone in the impacts. The cost of materials and services used in nonresidential construction in the U.S. posted its steepest annual increase in two-and-a-half years in August, according to the��

And the lumber impacts were being felt on both sides. But Trump continued to add further pressure to Canadian producers of softwood lumber.

In October, he set out a 10 per cent duty on imports of softwood timber and lumber, along with a 25 per cent levy on imports of kitchen cabinets and vanities. It was yet another blow.

Then the off and on talks that spanned the year also came to an abrupt halt, because of an Ontario ad.

The Ontario government paid about $75 million for an ad campaign to air across multiple American television stations using audio and video of former president Ronald Reagan speaking critically about tariffs in 1987.

“Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump posted on social media at the time.

While Carney attempted to do damage control, in November he also emphasized the importance of the lumber and steel sectors looking for more opportunities at home.

He unveiled a suite of new supports for the tariff-stricken sectors, aimed at boosting the use of Canadian steel and lumber in domestic homebuilding and infrastructure projects.

In December, the feds’ “Buy Canadian” came into effect, changing procurement and the way goods and services are purchased.

Then, in passing, Trump stated “we’ll see” in early December to talks resuming between the two nations.��

It’s a fitting statement to end the year on, as the tariff turmoil will continue in 2026.

NEW CANADIAN GOVERNMENT, NEW PROJECTS, NEW FOCUS

It was out with the familiar and in with the new for Canada in 2026, as former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned in March and Mark Carney was sworn in.

He immediately made changes with the new Liberal government consisting of 24 ministers, including Carney, and a mix of Trudeau-era ministers and new faces.

But he wouldn’t be at the helm long before a whirlwind election was called, with voters heading to the polls April 28.

A tight race ensued between Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. But the Carney Liberals would capture 168 seats to take a minority government win (it now numbers 171 as several Conservatives have crossed the floor – 172 is a majority).

Immediately Carney reiterated his key campaign promises, to continue tough trade talks with Trump; to bolster housing in Canada; and, key for construction, speed up major “nation-building” projects.

In September, the federal government launched the new major projects office, which was tasked with choosing megaprojects and expediting approval processes for them.

“This is the most important reform to how Canada builds major projects in decades,” said Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson at the time.

Later that month the first five projects were announced. They consisted of phase two of LNG Canada’s Kitimat, B.C. project; the Red Chris Mine expansion in northwest B.C.; the McIlvenna Bay copper mine project in central Saskatchewan; the Darlington New Nuclear project in Clarington, Ont.; and the Contrecœur Terminal container project in Quebec.

Then came Carney’s biggest test with the unveiling of the budget in November, a departure from the typical spring rollout.

It featured many aspects that were applauded by the construction industry, namely a new capital��budgeting framework; doubling down on infrastructure; and funding for the new Build Canada Homes agency.

Later that month, Carney unveiled the next batch of major projects.

They include the Crawford nickel mine in Ontario, the Ksi Lisims LNG project on B.C.’s northwest coast, and the North Coast Transmission Line to power projects in the region, including the Ksi Lisims LNG facility, as well as a hydroelectric project in Iqaluit, the Nouveau Monde graphite mine in Quebec and the Sisson tungsten mine in New Brunswick.

Once again this was all welcome news for construction.

Then, near the end of the year, Carney made headlines for making a deal with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, which has received both praise and criticism. ��

The two signed an agreement that commits them to working toward building an oil pipeline to the West Coast and opens the door to changes to the coastal tanker ban.

The two agreed Ottawa would enable the export of oil through a deepsea port to Asian markets and “if necessary” adjust the tanker ban to make that happen. B.C. Premier David Eby and Indigenous groups are steadfast it is never going to happen.

In all of this, a key question remains: Will any of these projects see major progress in 2026?